Personally-Dynasty Warriors ST's would win. China has always been known for it's Tacticians, Strategist, and Leader's. Confucius, Sun Tzu. Not saying Japan doesn't have them, but more World Renown and known. Plus Ancient/Fuedal China had the Mongol's, those guys were nasty, and brutal. Gengis Khan. ETC.
Statistically-Samurai Warriors ST's would win. The Tech Nobunaga used would decimate pretty much Shu, Wu, Wei, And who ever becomes the next Han (Which was Sima Yi's Son right? He winds up "Taking the Cup" so to speak at the end of it all right?).
At this juncture, I'd say Samurai Warriors MIGHT lose due to Arrogance of the Tacticians. Only one who was truly Arrogant of their strategies, not really willing to work with others was Sima Yi. He hated it/Had to be ontop of what ever project. SW's ST's would fight/bicker and possibly cause fights to break out between them they would become divided and be conquered, where as..I think Zhuge Liang, Lu Meng, and Pang Tong would wind up working together tp find a way to Tie Sima Yi down so he can't cause any trouble, when they get stuck they would un-bound his mouth ask him for assistance...if he replied properly, he gets to join in, if he argue's bicker's...lol
I know this was made a long time ago, but I just had to say, the mongols weren't Chinese. They invaded and conquered the Chinese... about 1200 years after the events of DW.