next »

[looknohands]

While I'm not inclined to disagree with the gist of your statement, I wouldn't call Cao Pi's move foolish. The current emperor has no heir, dad's dead, people support the move. Wei fell apart from two competent leaders dying fairly young and the poor choice in Cao Shuang as regent.

The Duke Wen comments are interesting but don't they appear in a direct quote? I have my suspicions it was tossed in later to serve as foreshadowing. Or maybe he was aware of the repercussions of such a move and was waiting for the right time, which never came.

It was a foolish decision for 3 reasons:
1. It's never a good idea to declare yourself the victor before the race is over.  Wei controlled roughly half the land by this point in time and the endgame was hardly a foregone conclusion.
2. He gave Liu Bei further claim to restoring the Han, while driving away anyone who still supported the Han. 
3. His need for legitimacy directly played into Sun Quan's hands, preventing Wei from taking advantage of the war between Shu and Wu.

Number 3, in particular, stands out as the biggest reason why Pi's move was foolish.  This would be Wei's best chance ever to strike at Wu, but the chance went begging on account of Quan offering to recognize the Wei dynasty.  The sad thing is that many of Cao Pi's officials (and likely Pi himself) recognized that Quan was only buying time, but they were left with no choice. 

[scholar]

While its true Wei had "half" the land; the population, wealth, and power of the northern provinces was undeniable. The South was born from refugees and makeshift commanderies by various campaigns in Wu along with a few noble houses that had established themselves there years earlier. The only true wealth in the region was in Jing and along the Yangze elsewhere with one or two minor exceptions. Otherwise it was a lot of hills, mountains, swamps, forests, rivers, and lakes.

[looknohands]

Otherwise it was a lot of hills, mountains, swamps, forests, rivers, and lakes.

And that's precisely why it would take another forty or so years before they could be conquered.  Had Pi taken advantage of Yi Ling, he could have invaded the eastern half of Wu while their forces were divided or made a move on the southern Jing region to take advantage of the war betwen Wu and Shu.  Had he been truly bold, he could have taken advantage of Quan's truce to launch a full-scale attack on Shu and try to dislodge them from Han Zhong, considering the size of the army Bei took with him to Yi Ling.  In the end, he did nothing.

[scholar]

There's not enough in those hills, mountains, and swamps to sustain an Empire. You don't conquer those territories. You conquer the cities and you crush the armies, after that any resistance they can give is mute. Especially once you capture their Emperor. Sun Hao surrendered Wu when almost all of Wu was untouched, only the river had been lost alongside several of the major border cities. Fighting continued in Jing, Jiao remained untouched, and hardly a foot was set in Jiangdong. However, the war was already lost at this point. Just as Liu Shan could have retreated to Jian Ning, Sun Hao had a number of places to flea. It was just pointless to resist at that point. It would only cost a lot of lives and the defeated state would have virtually no hope of surviving.

[looknohands]

True, but Sun Hao's surrender came after decades of Wu decline, beginning with Quan's seeming mental deterioration.  When Wu was at its peak, I doubt that Wei could have made any sustained push and seen success.  Even if you assume they conquer Yi and gain access to the Yangzi, I just don't see how they could overcome Wu's terrain (including their naval defences) combined with their military talent.  It would have been an extremely bloody war of attrition, and I'm not sure Pi would have been able to keep things under control well enough to maintain order as the bulk of their might focused on the south.

[scholar]

I really never understood why there is such an emphasis placed on the capture of Yi giving Wei access to the Yangze, especially since Wei had hundreds of access points to that river, many of which were major enough to launch an invasion down (and indeed did several times). About the only thing it gave was access without needing to go down a tributary, which is not as great a decisive advantage as it seems to be lauded. An advantage, but far from decisive. The river tributaries in northern Jing were far more important to any invasion plan.

Even when Wu was at its peak, after being put in the position Sun Hao was then it still would have been lost. Now, should Wu have remained at its peak and its navy been properly maintained and its armies properly commanded then it never would have fell into such a scenario, though once inside said scenario it would be almost impossible to find victory. The reason for this is because the river wasn't just the barrier of Wu, it was its lifeblood. It wouldn't function without the river because the river was the basis of communication and trade, alongside transport. Once the river is lost, Wu falls. It can resist, and it can even flee to Jiao and revive the Nan Yue state in its effectiveness, but being in Jiao is ultimately self defeating if we are talking about a surviving Wu state. The difficulties of troop movements and extended rule becomes to great and its forced to abandon the territories to the north.

And a bloody war of attrition could quite easily occur, but its not something one would suspect would occur. Many of Wu's generals at its peak were selfish, killing subordinates and "rebelling" without much restraint. They'd be forgiven and be allowed back in command, but there's no sense that such people would truly remain loyal if it became clear that Wu would, at the very least, lose more than half its empire. Defections would occur, if only for the fact that the move would take officials and generals from their ancestral homelands and temples, forcing them to abandon their homes and material wealth for a far inferior position. Jiao would have been the wealthiest and most powerful place they could go to, but it would not be on par with Jiangdong, nor Jingzhou. Once they've made the move Wei would only have to settle in in order to keep the territories that are now far from the reach of Wu's armies.

[Gray Riders]

Many of Wu's generals at its peak were selfish, killing subordinates and "rebelling" without much restraint. They'd be forgiven and be allowed back in command, but there's no sense that such people would truly remain loyal if it became clear that Wu would, at the very least, lose more than half its empire.

I'm curious who you're thinking of in particular; I can guess that Gan Ning, Pan Zhang and Zhu Huan are there but who else?

[looknohands]

I really never understood why there is such an emphasis placed on the capture of Yi giving Wei access to the Yangze, especially since Wei had hundreds of access points to that river, many of which were major enough to launch an invasion down (and indeed did several times). About the only thing it gave was access without needing to go down a tributary, which is not as great a decisive advantage as it seems to be lauded. An advantage, but far from decisive. The river tributaries in northern Jing were far more important to any invasion plan.

From Rafe:
"From this point of view, the defeat at the Red Cliffs gains even
more importance, for Cao Cao and his heirs never again controlled a
fleet comparable to that which he had acquired in 208. In skill and
experience, the forces which Cao Cao had taken over from Liu Biao
had been equal to those of Sun Quan and his allies. Whether by
reason of internal dissidence, poor management or the mischance of
fate, as a result of the Red Cliffs campaign, followed by the success
of the allies against Jiangling in the next year, that great fleet was
lost.
It may well have seemed to Cao Cao, and to others at the time,
that the matter was of minor importance, for ships could always be
rebuilt and the northern part of Jing province was yet a substantial
acquisition. In fact, however, the victory gave Sun Quan and Liu Bei
control of the Yangzi, and in the defence of that line of the river the
southerners acquired a strategic initiative, and a dominance in skill,
which they retained for generations to come."

Wei had no answer for Wu's mastery of the river and, most notably, their fortress at Ru Xu.

"Despite these internal problems, there was one basic reason for the long independence of Wu, and that was the notable difficulty of conquering the state, or even defeating it. The geography of the Yangzi, from the Gorges to the sea, presented a most effective barrier for defence; and military capacity of the time was not sufficient for any side in the civil war to win a decisive victory."

[scholar]

Wei had no answer for Wu's mastery of the river and, most notably, their fortress at Ru Xu.

And Yizhou didn't provide one, which is important to keep in mind. Wu surrendered its mastery of the river through decades of mismanagement and Ru Xu became nothing but a paper tiger without the mastery of the river to assist it.

[Humble Hero]

I'm not sure on the defections... a good thought but then again, Wei isn't exactly known for it's leniency for law breakers. At least, as far as I recall it was under Cao Caos rule. Maybe Cao Pi could see it differently.

[scholar]

I'm not sure on the defections... a good thought but then again, Wei isn't exactly known for it's leniency for law breakers. At least, as far as I recall it was under Cao Caos rule. Maybe Cao Pi could see it differently.

If they do so after they join I doubt they'd be treated as leniently, but that would not prevent Wei from accepting defecters. Its considered a horrendously bad policy to do so.

[Rivus]

Man these threads remind me why I am learning Japanese again. I can't wait to play RTKX with the PUK.

On topic, the whole Liu Bei being the successor to the Han thing was probably mostly just propaganda. If he really did have the Hans best interests at heart he would have simply submitted to Cao Cao to prevent bloodshed and unite the country as soon as possible. I'm sure if he wasn't executed on the spot he would have become a prominent enough figure to keep the Han line going strong.

But chances are he would be assassinated or something, and you can bet he probably thought so too.

[Humble Hero]

On topic, the whole Liu Bei being the successor to the Han thing was probably mostly just propaganda. If he really did have the Hans best interests at heart he would have simply submitted to Cao Cao to prevent bloodshed and unite the country as soon as possible.

Why? Why would he let Cao Cao rule if Cao Cao had no right ruling? Or if he wasn't the ideal candidate? (Ideal candidate here being decided by if you could "out rule" the other man)

Indeed - there's a point where you surrender to stop the bloodshed, but you can't just lay down to every man and his dog who holds a sword to someones neck. I think Liu Shan probably picked a good enough point to surrender - perhaps a little bit late but close enough to the "I'm beat, lets stop wasting lives dragging this out" point.

[Ma Su]

On topic, the whole Liu Bei being the successor to the Han thing was probably mostly just propaganda. If he really did have the Hans best interests at heart he would have simply submitted to Cao Cao to prevent bloodshed and unite the country as soon as possible. I'm sure if he wasn't executed on the spot he would have become a prominent enough figure to keep the Han line going strong.

But chances are he would be assassinated or something, and you can bet he probably thought so too.

Some Han loyalists, or those deemed Han loyalists, did serve the Han under Cao Cao without trying to kill the man. It tended not to end well. Yang Biao had to retire to save his life after nearly being killed, Xun Yu was forced to kill himself. The quicker Liu Bei surrenders, the quicker Cao Cao can claim the mandate and overthrow the Han.

Personally I believe Liu Bei's did become a man who wanted to rule and used the Han as political justification, while believing it to be true, but I'm not sure your idea would work.

[Kong Rong]

I really never understood why there is such an emphasis placed on the capture of Yi giving Wei access to the Yangze, especially since Wei had hundreds of access points to that river, many of which were major enough to launch an invasion down (and indeed did several times). About the only thing it gave was access without needing to go down a tributary, which is not as great a decisive advantage as it seems to be lauded. An advantage, but far from decisive. The river tributaries in northern Jing were far more important to any invasion plan.

Even when Wu was at its peak, after being put in the position Sun Hao was then it still would have been lost. Now, should Wu have remained at its peak and its navy been properly maintained and its armies properly commanded then it never would have fell into such a scenario, though once inside said scenario it would be almost impossible to find victory. The reason for this is because the river wasn't just the barrier of Wu, it was its lifeblood. It wouldn't function without the river because the river was the basis of communication and trade, alongside transport. Once the river is lost, Wu falls. It can resist, and it can even flee to Jiao and revive the Nan Yue state in its effectiveness, but being in Jiao is ultimately self defeating if we are talking about a surviving Wu state. The difficulties of troop movements and extended rule becomes to great and its forced to abandon the territories to the north.

And a bloody war of attrition could quite easily occur, but its not something one would suspect would occur. Many of Wu's generals at its peak were selfish, killing subordinates and "rebelling" without much restraint. They'd be forgiven and be allowed back in command, but there's no sense that such people would truly remain loyal if it became clear that Wu would, at the very least, lose more than half its empire. Defections would occur, if only for the fact that the move would take officials and generals from their ancestral homelands and temples, forcing them to abandon their homes and material wealth for a far inferior position. Jiao would have been the wealthiest and most powerful place they could go to, but it would not be on par with Jiangdong, nor Jingzhou. Once they've made the move Wei would only have to settle in in order to keep the territories that are now far from the reach of Wu's armies.

Think of it this way:

By taking Sichuan, an additional avenue of attack was made possible for Jin. The absorption of Shu-Han granted Wei/Jin vast new resources to confront Wu and also limited the opposition that they needed to face.

To put things into perspective, the earlier acquisition of Sichuan was also a key prerequisite that allowed the North under the Sui dynasty to finally triumph over the South during a later period. Sichuan allowed access to strategically significant waterways that led to the Southeast.

In my mind, the conquest of Shu-Han was a pre-requisite for the conquest of Wu. It resulted in Wu's political isolation and decline in power vis-a-vis the North.

However, I do think that a decline in leadership was critical in the conquest of both Shu-Han and Wu. Once they lost Zhuge Liang, Sun Quan and other important leaders, those two kingdoms were less able to mount an effective resistance.