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[Ma Su]

I think Lu Meng showed Fu Shi Ren to show Mi Fang that the key defensive points had collapsed and Mi Fang was alone against Wu

His friend FuShi Ren had defected and he knew that either way he would be captured by Wu or punished from Shu.The safest he could do is to defect cause he would not lose his life (like Liu Feng was executed or as a prisoner) he would be a scapegoat for Shu if he remained.If he was executed by Shu,then his brother might defect in order to avenge his death.

Liu Bei was not an idiot, punishing one of the few men who puts up a defence would be a very stupid idea. Mi Fang would be given a sizeable reward, if he got rescued, to encourage others to do likewise in the future.

Liu Feng lost his life becuase 1) his sheer incompetence deserved it  and 2) he was a threat to the stability of Shu. Mi Fang had done neither. Mi Zhu was a loyalist but even if he defected, he would not have sought vengance given his compete lack of miliatry expirence

[GuanXing-Shu]

I also doubt if Mi Fang didn't betray Shu that the outcome would have been much different, he wasn't a terrible general, but wasn't great enough to defeat a force lead by Lu Meng. The only real difference is Mi Fang would have been executed in Wu, or if would have been released back to Yi. There might have been a small chance he would have been a hostage as well, due to his brothers high rank in Shu, but I'm not sure on that.

[Yue Fei]

I also doubt if Mi Fang didn't betray Shu that the outcome would have been much different, he wasn't a terrible general, but wasn't great enough to defeat a force lead by Lu Meng. The only real difference is Mi Fang would have been executed in Wu, or if would have been released back to Yi. There might have been a small chance he would have been a hostage as well, due to his brothers high rank in Shu, but I'm not sure on that.

He might not have been able to defeat Lu Meng, that much is certain. But the outcome would definitely be different if he could delay him, and get word to Guan Yu about Wu's betrayal earlier. Chances are that something could have been constructed to mitigate the damage done to Shu.

[GuanXing-Shu]

True, but do you think Guan Yu would have still lived? They still would have lost Jing to Wu, but do you think the delay that Mi Fang might have been able to create could have changed much?

[Gray Riders]

I think Lu Meng showed Fu Shi Ren to show Mi Fang that the key defensive points had collapsed and Mi Fang was alone against Wu

This seems quite likely to me, but I didn't phrase it well in my previous post.

He might not have been able to defeat Lu Meng, that much is certain. But the outcome would definitely be different if he could delay him, and get word to Guan Yu about Wu's betrayal earlier. Chances are that something could have been constructed to mitigate the damage done to Shu.

The tricky part would be getting a message out of the city. Lu Meng was a brilliant general and he'd probably have the city well surrounded and carefully watching for any attempts to contact the outside.

Even if a message gets out though, I'm less than confident of Guan Yu's ability to defeat Lu Meng and halt the invasion at this point. His army would be tired from the fight with Wei and he had far worse support than Lu Meng, who brought Jiang Qin and Sun Jiao with him--they would probably need reinforcements from Yi and I'm not sure they had that much time.

[Yue Fei]

The tricky part would be getting a message out of the city. Lu Meng was a brilliant general and he'd probably have the city well surrounded and carefully watching for any attempts to contact the outside.

Even if a message gets out though, I'm less than confident of Guan Yu's ability to defeat Lu Meng and halt the invasion at this point. His army would be tired from the fight with Wei and he had far worse support than Lu Meng, who brought Jiang Qin and Sun Jiao with him--they would probably need reinforcements from Yi and I'm not sure they had that much time.

Guan Yu was able to mostly hold back Lu Su, Lu Meng, and co. back when they invaded the first time in 215.

Mi Fang wouldn't even have to get a rider out to Guan Yu. Birds were also used as methods of delivering letters. And Lu Meng was brilliant, but take for example Liao Hua who was able to get out and inform Liu Feng. The same situation could occur this time.

Even when Guan Yu made his defense on the hillock against Lu Meng, he wasn't doing so horribly. The main problem was that men were deserting him left and right because their families were under Lu Meng's control.

At this point Cao Cao wasn't ordering pressure from the north (Xu Huang simply beat off Guan Yu's siege), and if Jiang Ling was still held by Mi Fang, Guan Yu would have been able to return.

This would have resulted in a costly siege, and based on the way Lu Meng conducted himself during the campaign, he was not quite prepared to dig in. His plan was to take it quickly and by surprise. Once both speed and surprise is lost, all of the advantage switches to the defender. Most military strategists say that you need at least 10 times the number of troops in order to assault/lay siege to a walled city or castle.

[Gray Riders]

Guan Yu was able to mostly hold back Lu Su, Lu Meng, and co. back when they invaded the first time in 215.

I'd argue Guan Yu actually did a pretty poor job at holding them back since the three commandaries Sun Quan was initially trying to take surrendered to Lu Meng, and in the end, he got two of them and Jiang Xia as well from the treaty. The situation was also different in 219; Guan Yu had reinforcements coming quickly, and his army wasn't fresh from a defeat to Wei in 215.

Mi Fang wouldn't even have to get a rider out to Guan Yu. Birds were also used as methods of delivering letters. And Lu Meng was brilliant, but take for example Liao Hua who was able to get out and inform Liu Feng. The same situation could occur this time.

The birds is a good point, so it seems Guan Yu could be informed of the attack (unless Lu Meng has a really good archer).

Even when Guan Yu made his defense on the hillock against Lu Meng, he wasn't doing so horribly. The main problem was that men were deserting him left and right because their families were under Lu Meng's control.

Forgive me, but do you mean Maicheng? I'm looking through ZZTJ and Guan Yu's SGZ but I'm not sure which event you're referring to with the hillock, as Maicheng seemed to be after his army had mostly deserted.

This would have resulted in a costly siege, and based on the way Lu Meng conducted himself during the campaign, he was not quite prepared to dig in. His plan was to take it quickly and by surprise. Once both speed and surprise is lost, all of the advantage switches to the defender. Most military strategists say that you need at least 10 times the number of troops in order to assault/lay siege to a walled city or castle.

This is true, it was very hard to take fortified positions before gunpowder (look at Yijing, Hefei, Chenchang or Ruxu from the same period). Although the campaign was swift as it did happen, I think this was do or die for Wu--they'll never get another opportunity like this for Jing, and Lu Meng was convinced Jing was the best option, even planning to invade Wei from it. I think if it came down to it, he'd be willing to dig down for a full scale drag out campaign--in 215, they had to be concerned with Cao Cao taking Hanzhong but that was settled now.

Although it wasn't a crippling loss, Guan Yu's army was recently defeated by Xu Huang. Now they receive word they've been attacked from behind by a former ally, Gongan has already surrendered, and the guy Guan Yu thought he didn't have to worry about because he was sick is actually leading the attack--surely morale will suffer. Although the defender has the advantage, I think Lu Meng could defeat him under these cirumstances, especially since he had superior officers with him. From there he should be able to take the rest of Jing, as judging by it's rapid capture historically it seems the defenses in much of it were not worth speaking of.

So, I don't really think Mi Fang holding out would save Jing, but it might prolong the campaign.

[yellow turban]

Mi Fang was a very loyal retainer, being coward is not the main reason for defecting during that battle.Which were the other reasons? If he was so coward he would have accepted Cao Cao's offer to become senior officer (when Liu Bei became independent)  or would defect during Chi Bi battle

[Yue Fei]

I'd argue Guan Yu actually did a pretty poor job at holding them back since the three commandaries Sun Quan was initially trying to take surrendered to Lu Meng, and in the end, he got two of them and Jiang Xia as well from the treaty. The situation was also different in 219; Guan Yu had reinforcements coming quickly, and his army wasn't fresh from a defeat to Wei in 215.

Being that the commanderies that were taken by Sun Quan surrendered, and not stormed and captured (apart from He Pu, who initially held out and had been tricked into surrendering). I'd say that Guan Yu did a pretty good job at defending the area.

Forgive me, but do you mean Maicheng? I'm looking through ZZTJ and Guan Yu's SGZ but I'm not sure which event you're referring to with the hillock, as Maicheng seemed to be after his army had mostly deserted.

Yes, I am referring to Maicheng. He only had about a dozen men with him. Clearly if he was holding it, there was fighting going on. But at his point of making an escape, much like the novel suggests, he probably did not have enough supplies, and definitely not enough men to make a concentrated effort at holding it.

This is true, it was very hard to take fortified positions before gunpowder (look at Yijing, Hefei, Chenchang or Ruxu from the same period). Although the campaign was swift as it did happen, I think this was do or die for Wu--they'll never get another opportunity like this for Jing, and Lu Meng was convinced Jing was the best option, even planning to invade Wei from it. I think if it came down to it, he'd be willing to dig down for a full scale drag out campaign--in 215, they had to be concerned with Cao Cao taking Hanzhong but that was settled now.

Although it wasn't a crippling loss, Guan Yu's army was recently defeated by Xu Huang. Now they receive word they've been attacked from behind by a former ally, Gongan has already surrendered, and the guy Guan Yu thought he didn't have to worry about because he was sick is actually leading the attack--surely morale will suffer. Although the defender has the advantage, I think Lu Meng could defeat him under these cirumstances, especially since he had superior officers with him. From there he should be able to take the rest of Jing, as judging by it's rapid capture historically it seems the defenses in much of it were not worth speaking of.

So, I don't really think Mi Fang holding out would save Jing, but it might prolong the campaign.

Of course, but Guan Yu outnumbered Lu Meng even after he was beat back by Xu Huang. Lu Meng definitely did not have the numbers to undertake a siege of Jiangling even if it were held by someone who might not be extremely brave, but at least resolute in defense. Then add Guan Yu and his army being close by to beat off the siege, and it would have been extremely helpful.

In this case, Liu Bei already had gained a foothold in Hanzhong, and now that the campaign is delayed Liu Bei could return and capitalize on what failed to happen in 215. Seeing as how Liu Bei got there fairly quickly in 215, I don't think it's unreasonable for Guan Yu to hold out for at least a few months when he has supplies, and men.

[Nick]

well.. this is an interesting occurrence!  A topic on which I have not yet debated about!

Before I get into that, however, I would just like to say that this:
Ma Su, this:

Liu Feng lost his life becuase 1) his sheer incompetence deserved it  and 2) he was a threat to the stability of Shu.

makes me sad.   Liu Feng's mere existence caused the second, and I disagree with you on the first.  But that is neither here nor there.

Yue Fei:

Being that the commanderies that were taken by Sun Quan surrendered, and not stormed and captured (apart from He Pu, who initially held out and had been tricked into surrendering). I'd say that Guan Yu did a pretty good job at defending the area.

This proves nothing.  The evidence that Guan Yu did a good job defending his territory is that there was no fighting?  No.  Doesn't work.  In fact, it actually points, vaguely, in the opposite direction.  If you know you can't win, you surrender.  Why can't they win?  Because they know that Guan Yu can't/didn't defend it properly?  Perhaps.   Further, Wu and Shu didn't engage in a full out war in 215, so saying Guan Yu held them back during that event isn't exactly true in the sense that you are taking it to mean.

Either way, I am more inclined to agree with Riders on this point.

Clearly if he was holding it, there was fighting going on.

Again, you infer something that isn't proven.  How long did Wei hold back Sun Quan's invasion of He Fei?  And how often during that time are we led to believe that there was any actual fighting?  Most sieges didn't have much fighting.  Rather, they were an attempt to cut off the target from supplies.  When they finally did actually attack, it was a single large thrust, typically led only during a flood, a successful tunneling, with the help of siege equipment, or some other occurrence other than throwing men at a wall (typically... there are always exceptions).  When people actually fought at the walls, it is made a special note-of in biographies, specifically because it is so rare.

Before you even consider all the ways to argue this point, let me clarify that I am not saying you are wrong.  I am only saying that based on what we know about how sieges were typically led, there is a huge possibility that Wu was planning on waiting Guan Yu out, rather than Guan Yu actually defending himself at all.

Of course, but Guan Yu outnumbered Lu Meng even after he was beat back by Xu Huang

Did he now?  Is that counting all the men that left him over the course of his engagement with Wu forces?  Should it count them?  Would they have still deserted him if Mi Fang was fighting back?  How would their morale fare, knowing they got smashed by such a small group (Xu Huangs), and had traveled such a long distance only to lose, and be returning to a home that is now in Wu territory?  Would they be able to defeat Lu Meng, who is fresh, rested, and riding a wave of victories?

Lets not even factor in that I don't respect Guan Yu's ability as a leader...

Although the defender has the advantage, I think Lu Meng could defeat him under these cirumstances, especially since he had superior officers with him

Interestingly enough, if we are refering to Guan Yu helping to defeat Lu Meng here, Lu meng would technically be defending against Guan Yu now, having had time to set up camps and prepare defenses against him during his march.

Following this line of thought, Lu meng would definitely try to prevent Guan Yu from getting into the city.  Its possible that once Guan Yu returned, Lu Meng would still be able to kill him, causing Mi Fang to surrender after the fact, instead of before.  Or, that Mi Fang would send out troops to try and attack Lu Meng while he was in battle with Guan Yu, and that it might allow for Lu Meng to defeat a majority of the cities defenders outside of the walls.  Or Lu Meng dies somewhere in there.  Who can say for sure, huh?

[Yue Fei]

Did he now?  Is that counting all the men that left him over the course of his engagement with Wu forces?  Should it count them?  Would they have still deserted him if Mi Fang was fighting back?  How would their morale fare, knowing they got smashed by such a small group (Xu Huangs), and had traveled such a long distance only to lose, and be returning to a home that is now in Wu territory?  Would they be able to defeat Lu Meng, who is fresh, rested, and riding a wave of victories?

I'm only going to focus on this, but Xu Huang waited until he was reinforced 3 times by veteran troops, until he outnumbered Guan Yu.

As for the siege situation, it would have been considerably harder for Wu to wait out Guan Yu in Jiang Ling, than for Guan Yu to wait Wu out, seeing as Jiang Ling is one of the largest cities in Jing. The city walls, the size of the city and it's ability to hold provisions, is all in advantage towards Shu.

If Wu wanted to gain hold of the city by simply waiting Guan Yu out, then that is also ignoring Liu Bei (who came fairly quickly in 215, even while he had to worry about Hanzhong). Now that it's under his control, how much more of a threat would Liu Bei be to Wu's attempted occupation?

Everything regarding Wu's campaign, rested on it moving fast and all plans falling exactly where they were supposed to fall. As soon as they stop to wait, the entire campaign is dead in the water.